Head of the Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Rashid Sumaila is excited to have his first appearance in the journal Science, co-authoring an article titled “Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century.”
The article, which first appeared online yesterday explores scenarios of biodiversity changes in the future using metrics such as species extinctions, species abundance and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species. The authors conclude by suggesting that future scenarios of biodiversity need to focus on integrating predictions of biodiversity changes with feedbacks to societal responses. The abstract is available below for a quick summary while the full text is available online.
Abstract: Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are significant opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
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